该市场分析公司在过去的7年中连续做过14次有关Linux/自由软件的市场调查，尽管调查的对象是有Linux经验的开发人员，但是Evans公司的首席分析师表示，由于历史的原因，大部分的开发者的开发平台都是Windows。但是在最近的调查中显示，有部分的开发人员表示，他们在将来的12-18个月的开发中，为Linux平台书写代码的数量要超过Windows平台。
在过去的几年中，有上述预见的程序员的数量大大增加，曲线爬升非常明显，现在我们需要做的就是观察，这种现象是否能够实现。
不出意外，Linux的开发人员将基于Web界面和富客户端的应用程序作为他们的开发的首选，因为这些应用程序有着很广泛的用途。
第三类则是新兴的市场，比如Linux桌面应用程序，也许稀奇古怪的地桌面应用程序比起传统的Linux平台的数据库程序更有吸引力。
对桌面应用程序开发的狂热，看起来一反常态，因为Linux向来在传统的服务器领略占优，没有想到在桌面市场也能有这么大的影响力。在调查人员看来，Linux在桌面市场的进步是一个令人惊喜的发现。
In its most recent survey of some 400 software developers with Linux experience, the Evans Data research firm discovered a major change.
The research firm has conducted its Open Source/Linux Development survey 14 times over the last 7 years. Although the firm limits the survey to developers with Linux experience, “Historically, the target platform was dominated by Windows,” says John Andrews, principal analyst with Evans. “Regardless of what kind of developer you are, you’re still trying to make a living, and target the operating system that’s controlling the market.”
However, in the most recent survey, the developers’ forecast of their target platform has changed. For the first time, these developers said that in the next 12 to 18 months they expect to be developing more Linux apps than Windows apps.
Over the last few years, the number of developers who forecast that they would be coding more Linux than Windows apps has created a clearly rising trend line. Still, “Having those numbers that close for the first time is a pretty significant data point,” Andrews tells Datamation.
“Now, we’ll have to wait and see if that actually happens.”
Linux Desktop
The developer’s survey found at least one additional unusual data point.
Surprising no one, these developers with Linux chops report that their top two development choices are Web-based interfaces and rich client applications. This was expected because these types of apps have such wide usage.
The No. 3 choice, however, falls under the category of “emerging market”: Linux desktop apps. (Perhaps oddly, desktop apps were a more popular development choice than database apps, a traditionally strong area for open source.)
The enthusiasm for desktop apps might be seen as an anomaly: while Linux is strong in the server market, its penetration in the desktop market continues to be very modest.
Indeed, the developers’ enthusiasm for desktop apps “is a slightly surprising finding,” Andrews says.
The explanation: “We see more of that in geographies other than North America,” he says. “We see more traction, for instance, in Europe and in the Asia Pacific region around the [open source] desktop.”
Cost, he notes, is a very big factor in some of these less affluent markets. Moreover, “The lineage factor, the Microsoft and Windows heritage, isn’t there.”
A Philosophical Bunch
A survey finding that likely would shock no developer with a Linux bent: the rationale for developing in open source remains consistent to its core tradition. The survey finds that the three leading reasons for coding in open source are: the philosophy of open source, open access to the source code, and cost savings.
Tellingly, the Evans survey finds that developers rank these top three factors equally. On the face of it, the fact that philosophical concerns are ranked equally with cost savings runs counter to business logic – and certainly software development is a business.
“Not necessarily from a developer’s standpoint,” Andrews says. “Fortunately or unfortunately, from an open source standpoint that philosophy is a big issue.”
Next page: Sharing Code
The organizations that these developers work for (or are aligned with) will be taking a look at many open source applications in the next two years, the survey finds.
A hefty 69% will consider open source browser Firefox, with 70% planning on considering application development software.
Given the popularity of open source among survey respondents, it’s not surprising that they favor Linux as the best OS for the majority of applications. It's their top pick for Web-related apps (68%), embedded systems development (61%), and high performance computing (HPC) (56%). Linux is also a popular selection for personal productivity apps (44%).
In terms of security, survey respondents indicate they think Linux is safer than all Windows releases – by a wide margin. Respondents also rank Linux safer than all Unix variants (including the Mac OS), though by a smaller percentage. The reason behind respondents’ belief in the security of Linux: 81% report that their servers have never been compromised by a security attack.
One time-honored open source practice that the survey reveals is very much alive: developers are using chunks of code from the open source library, or open source third party solutions, to complete their own projects.
The survey finds the practice is particularly popular because of today’s tight development cycles. Also driving popularity is the cornucopia of open source choices that are now available. Some 32% of developers say “ease of use” prompts them to use pre-written open source code, with 25% reporting “quality” as their rationale.